Use Desktop Programs for Betting Systems

Excel and Co. are powerful programs with which an advanced user can do a lot. Of course, such software is especially useful when you have to juggle a lot of numbers, so Microsoft Excel or OpenOffice Calc are ideal for sports betting with With a little practice and an understanding of arithmetic, a program can be understood quickly. Formulas can make life easier when it comes to betting systems.

What is the betting system based on?

Before you can get started, you need a foundation for your staking system. Therefore, we are looking for a number of factors that are used to evaluate the game. Basically it can be teams, as well as betting odds and various variables. The latter are particularly important in order to distinguish possible value bets from gambling. Of course, there are also betting systems with other approaches, but this is mostly about the principle. The variables are basically key figures taken from statistics. For example, the number of points, goals, ball possession, goal difference and much more.

Goals of the betting system

Now the goal is to use these factors to get probabilities. These probabilities are then converted into odds and compared with the bookmaker's odds. If you get a value according to the betting system because the specially calculated odds of the bets are lower than the bookmaker's odds, you can talk about a worthwhile bet. So there are three steps: converting odds to probabilities, converting probabilities to odds, and comparing the odds to the bookmaker's odds.

From variables to probabilities

In the example below, let's assume that possession of the ball is a key component of a team's victory. Accordingly, possession of the ball should be the factor on which the probabilities of the next game are based. For example, an Excel user takes possession of the last ten games of the current season for both teams. For team A, this could be an average of 44%, for team B - 54%. Now you put the numbers into a formula and see what expectations should be set:

Expected Possession Team A = 0.44 / (0.44 0.54) x 100 = 44.9%
Expected Possession Team B = 0.54 / (0.44 0.54) x 100 = 55.1%

It becomes apparent that the expected possession is close to the previous average, but again slightly adjusted due to the opposing team. Other values ​​may show clearer differences. These values ​​can be entered in a table. Similarly, you can just enter the formulas into the table and then just enter the variables (previous ball possession) to automatically calculate the expected ball possession.
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